Role of error catastrophe in transmission ability of virus.

The role played by error catastrophe is explicitly taken into account in a mathematical formulation to analyze COVID-19 data. The idea is to combine the mathematical genetics formalism of the error catastrophe of mutations in virus gene loci with the standard model of epidemics, which lacks the explicit incorporation of the effect of mutation on the spreading of viruses. We apply this formalism to the case of SARS-CoV-2 virus. We assume the universality of the error catastrophe in the process of analyzing the data. This means that some basic parameter to describe the error catastrophe is independent of which group (country or city) we deal with. Concretely, we analyze Omicron variant data from South Africa and then analyze cases from Japan using the same value of the basic parameter derived in the South Africa analysis. The excellent fit between the two sets of data, one from South Africa and the other from Japan, using the common values of genetic parameters, justifies our assumption of the universality of these parameters.

Effect of vaccination against COVID-19 spreading.

We continue (Ref. 1: Proc. Jpn. Acad. Ser. B 97, 22-49) to analyze the COVID-19 status. We concentrate on the following issues in this work:1. Effect of vaccination against the spreading of SARS-CoV-2.2. General landscape of the world situation concerning vaccinations.3. Some aspects of the new variants of SARS-CoV-2.Our findings include:1. With vaccinations, it is fair to say that we have entered a new phase in the fight against the virus SARS-CoV-2. We have analyzed some preliminary data to find how vaccinations can be effective against COVID-19 spreading. This analysis is based on, and is a continuation of, our first paper quoted in Ref. 1.2. If Tokyo (or Japan) continues to keep its vaccination schedule (starting in early April, 2021 and finishing it for elderly, 65 or older, in 4 months), it will see a sign of control of the virus in early June, 2021 although we see changes of this status due to new, more contagious variants.3. The strength (parameter ß) of a new contagious variant can be estimated based on the initial data on the variant (Section 5).

On the effectiveness of the search and find method to suppress spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Search and find methods*) such as cluster tracing1)-6) or large-scale PCR testing**) of those who exhibit no symptoms or only mild symptoms of COVID-19 is shown by data analysis to be a powerful means to suppress the spread of COVID-19 instead of, or in addition to, lockdown of the entire population. Here we investigate this issue by analyzing the data from some cities and countries and we establish that search and find method is as powerful as lockdown of a city or a country. Moreover, in contrast to lockdown, it neither causes inconvenience to citizens nor does it disrupt the economy. Generally speaking, it is advisable that both social distancing and increased test numbers be employed to suppress spread of the virus. The product of the total test number with the rate of positive cases is the crucial index.